讲座主题：Moving Online under De Minimis? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-Commerce

主讲嘉宾：俞志宏，英国诺丁汉大学经济学院副教授

时 间：2025年7月10日（周四）10:30-11:30

地 点：3044am永利集团沙河校区学院楼13号楼321

主持人：张晓涛教授，3044AM永利集团院长

点评人：张艳教授

主 办：3044AM永利集团

致 谢：本讲座获得2025年3044am永利集团专题学术讲座资助计划支持

讲座内容：

The rapid growth of international retail e-commerce has drawn scrutiny to the US de minimis rule, which exempts low-value imports from tariffs. This paper analyzes how the rule shapes the e-commerce trade using product-level tariff changes from the2018–2019 US–China trade war. We examine whether tariff increases on traditional imports led consumers to substitute toward tariff-exempt e-commerce imports from China. Using proprietary parcel-level data from a major logistics firm, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in tariffs raised monthly parcel volume by 0.283% in panel regressions, and by 0.719% in long-difference specifications. These effects imply a 4.0%–10.1% increase in e-commerce imports—substantial, yet modest compared to the 152% overall growth from 2017 to 2019. The response is stronger in densely populated ZIP Codes but does not vary by income or race. Our findings show that tariff avoidance under the de minimis rule contributed only modestly to e-commerce growth, but other forces, such as improved platform marketing, played a larger role.

嘉宾简介：

俞志宏，英国诺丁汉大学经济学博士、经济学院副教授、The World Economy副主编。主要研究领域为国际贸易与投资以及中国经济，他近期的研究工作聚焦于从实证和理论角度探讨企业如何适应全球化，成果发表于Review of Economics and Statistics，Journal of Internatioanal Economics，European Economic Review，Economic Theory等经济学顶级期刊，并担任Quarterly Journal of Economics等期刊匿名审稿人。